Snap Theory

Air Force

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Troy Calhoun

36thof 136 FBS teams
56fourth downs graded
11differ from the model
1.11%win chance given up per game
48%go for it
64%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 4 vs NEV: 4th & 9 at the NEV 44, Q3 0:10, down 4. Air Force punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.4% win chance given up).
  2. Week 10 vs ARMY: 4th & goal at the ARMY 4, Q2 14:53, tied. Air Force kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
  3. Week 7 vs UNLV: 4th & 4 at the UNLV 17, Q2 0:49, down 4. Air Force kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.7% win chance given up).
  4. Week 7 vs UNLV: 4th & 7 at the UNLV 45, Q2 7:42, up 3. Air Force punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
  5. Week 2 vs NDSU: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q1 7:52, down 7. Air Force punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.0% win chance given up).
Play Air Force’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards