Snap Theory

Alabama

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Kalen DeBoer

76thof 136 FBS teams
48fourth downs graded
15differ from the model
1.67%win chance given up per game
15%go for it
46%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 7 vs TENN: 4th & 1 at their own 44, Q2 10:28, down 9. Alabama punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.5% win chance given up).
  2. Week 10 vs LSU: 4th & 1 at their own 19, Q2 1:51, up 7. Alabama punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.2% win chance given up).
  3. Week 6 vs UGA: 4th & 2 at the UGA 22, Q3 5:07, down 3. Alabama kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.8% win chance given up).
  4. Week 10 vs LSU: 4th & 3 at the LSU 26, Q1 10:40, tied. Alabama kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
  5. Week 6 vs UGA: 4th & 5 at the UGA 49, Q2 14:46, down 3. Alabama punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.9% win chance given up).
Play Alabama’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards