Snap Theory

App State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Dowell Loggains

84thof 136 FBS teams
65fourth downs graded
19differ from the model
1.75%win chance given up per game
20%go for it
45%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 7 vs CCU: 4th & 1 at their own 36, Q4 11:40, up 4. App State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (4.4% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs JMU: 4th & 5 at the JMU 19, Q4 6:16, down 3. App State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
  3. Week 2 vs ECU: 4th & 4 at the ECU 24, Q1 0:44, down 7. App State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.7% win chance given up).
  4. Week 7 vs CCU: 4th & 3 at their own 48, Q3 12:48, down 10. App State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).
  5. Week 2 vs ECU: 4th & 10 at the ECU 39, Q3 7:09, up 7. App State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.9% win chance given up).
Play App State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards