Snap Theory

Arizona State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Kenny Dillingham

28thof 136 FBS teams
72fourth downs graded
18differ from the model
1.03%win chance given up per game
26%go for it
38%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 9 vs BYU: 4th & 4 at the BYU 48, Q4 8:09, down 3. Arizona State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.1% win chance given up).
  2. Week 10 vs COLO: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q1 2:34, up 3. Arizona State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.9% win chance given up).
  3. Week 2 vs TA&M: 4th & 3 at their own 45, Q4 11:23, down 11. Arizona State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.9% win chance given up).
  4. Week 8 vs KSU: 4th & 7 at the KSU 47, Q1 4:22, tied. Arizona State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.9% win chance given up).
  5. Week 6 vs HAW: 4th & 1 at their own 19, Q3 13:30, up 11. Arizona State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.6% win chance given up).
Play Arizona State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards