Snap Theory

Arizona

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Brent Brennan

92ndof 136 FBS teams
50fourth downs graded
18differ from the model
1.86%win chance given up per game
18%go for it
46%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 10 vs TCU: 4th & 1 at their own 23, Q4 11:34, down 1. Arizona punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.9% win chance given up).
  2. Week 2 vs BYU: 4th & 10 at the BYU 36, Q3 0:01, down 4. Arizona punted; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (2.9% win chance given up).
  3. Week 4 vs WSU: 4th & 2 at the WSU 25, Q3 9:25, down 3. Arizona kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.1% win chance given up).
  4. Week 6 vs WVU: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q2 5:27, tied. Arizona punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
  5. Week 6 vs WVU: 4th & 6 at the WVU 27, Q2 9:58, up 4. Arizona kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
Play Arizona’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards