Snap Theory

Arkansas State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Butch Jones

97thof 136 FBS teams
51fourth downs graded
19differ from the model
2.06%win chance given up per game
18%go for it
53%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 8 vs GAST: 4th & 1 at their own 40, Q1 4:12, up 7. Arkansas State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.2% win chance given up).
  2. Week 4 vs KENN: 4th & 2 at the KENN 16, Q4 8:19, tied. Arkansas State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.2% win chance given up).
  3. Week 5 vs UL: 4th & goal at the UL 4, Q3 5:08, tied. Arkansas State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.2% win chance given up).
  4. Week 10 vs ULM: 4th & 16 at the ULM 35, Q3 4:59, down 2. Arkansas State punted; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (2.1% win chance given up).
  5. Week 7 vs USM: 4th & 4 at the USM 23, Q1 2:10, up 3. Arkansas State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
Play Arkansas State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards