Snap Theory

Arkansas

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Ryan Silverfield

42ndof 136 FBS teams
66fourth downs graded
20differ from the model
1.16%win chance given up per game
20%go for it
50%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 6 vs TENN: 4th & 10 at their own 25, Q4 1:36, down 7. Arkansas punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.0% win chance given up).
  2. Week 10 vs AUB: 4th & 6 at the AUB 29, Q4 9:32, down 3. Arkansas kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.7% win chance given up).
  3. Week 10 vs AUB: 4th & 3 at the AUB 21, Q1 2:28, tied. Arkansas kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.2% win chance given up).
  4. Week 10 vs AUB: 4th & 6 at the AUB 36, Q1 9:46, tied. Arkansas kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.0% win chance given up).
  5. Week 4 vs TLSA: 4th & 3 at the TLSA 6, Q1 8:48, tied. Arkansas kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.6% win chance given up).
Play Arkansas’ calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards