Snap Theory

Army

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Jeff Monken

49thof 136 FBS teams
54fourth downs graded
18differ from the model
1.21%win chance given up per game
39%go for it
57%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 5 vs LT: 4th & 1 at the LT 27, Q4 3:57, down 9. Army went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (1.4% win chance given up).
  2. Week 9 vs MEM: 4th & 5 at the MEM 49, Q2 10:44, down 7. Army punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
  3. Week 2 vs USF: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q3 12:59, up 7. Army punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.9% win chance given up).
  4. Week 10 vs AFA: 4th & 9 at their own 26, Q2 13:59, down 3. Army went for it; the model’s call was to punt (0.7% win chance given up).
  5. Week 5 vs LT: 4th & 12 at the LT 42, Q2 6:23, tied. Army punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.4% win chance given up).
Play Army’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards