Snap Theory

Ball State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Mike Uremovich

86thof 136 FBS teams
62fourth downs graded
26differ from the model
1.78%win chance given up per game
18%go for it
58%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 10 vs MASS: 4th & 4 at the MASS 45, Q4 8:59, down 4. Ball State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (4.1% win chance given up).
  2. Week 7 vs BGSU: 4th & 1 at the BGSU 22, Q1 3:21, tied. Ball State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.5% win chance given up).
  3. Week 10 vs MASS: 4th & 20 at the MASS 33, Q2 6:44, tied. Ball State punted; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (2.4% win chance given up).
  4. Week 5 vs TOL: 4th & 1 at their own 14, Q3 8:36, down 5. Ball State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
  5. Week 5 vs TOL: 4th & 2 at the TOL 21, Q2 10:49, up 1. Ball State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.2% win chance given up).
Play Ball State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards