Snap Theory

Baylor

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Joe Klanderman (interim)

106thof 136 FBS teams
74fourth downs graded
15differ from the model
2.21%win chance given up per game
27%go for it
39%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 1 vs AUB: 4th & 4 at the AUB 5, Q4 7:12, down 3. Baylor kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (6.4% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs KU: 4th & 8 at the KU 25, Q4 2:40, up 2. Baylor kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (5.3% win chance given up).
  3. Week 10 vs ISU: 4th & 4 at the ISU 43, Q1 0:34, down 10. Baylor punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.1% win chance given up).
  4. Week 1 vs AUB: 4th & 4 at the AUB 25, Q2 14:52, down 3. Baylor kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.0% win chance given up).
  5. Week 10 vs ISU: 4th & 3 at the ISU 42, Q1 10:06, tied. Baylor punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).
Play Baylor’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards