Snap Theory

Boise State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Spencer Danielson

10thof 136 FBS teams
49fourth downs graded
11differ from the model
0.72%win chance given up per game
33%go for it
51%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 1 vs ORE: 4th & 4 at the ORE 19, Q4 8:45, down 3. Boise State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.2% win chance given up).
  2. Week 1 vs ORE: 4th & 2 at the ORE 12, Q2 2:48, up 7. Boise State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
  3. Week 1 vs ORE: 4th & 2 at their own 44, Q3 8:49, tied. Boise State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.0% win chance given up).
  4. Week 1 vs ORE: 4th & 6 at the ORE 49, Q1 4:20, up 6. Boise State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.8% win chance given up).
  5. Week 8 vs WSU: 4th & 7 at their own 44, Q1 5:37, tied. Boise State went for it; the model’s call was to punt (0.3% win chance given up).
Play Boise State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards