Snap Theory

Bowling Green

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Eddie George

123rdof 136 FBS teams
60fourth downs graded
29differ from the model
2.54%win chance given up per game
12%go for it
55%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 8 vs BUFF: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q4 12:30, down 3. Bowling Green punted; the model’s call was to go for it (4.8% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs BUFF: 4th & 1 at the BUFF 9, Q4 3:33, down 10. Bowling Green kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (3.9% win chance given up).
  3. Week 6 vs SAC: 4th & 4 at the SAC 35, Q2 3:38, up 4. Bowling Green punted; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (2.0% win chance given up).
  4. Week 7 vs BALL: 4th & 12 at the BALL 36, Q2 14:04, down 3. Bowling Green punted; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (2.0% win chance given up).
  5. Week 1 vs TAR: 4th & 9 at the TAR 37, Q2 13:23, down 7. Bowling Green punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.8% win chance given up).
Play Bowling Green’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards