Snap Theory

Buffalo

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Pete Lembo

99thof 136 FBS teams
80fourth downs graded
34differ from the model
2.08%win chance given up per game
16%go for it
55%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 8 vs BGSU: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q1 13:38, tied. Buffalo punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.2% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs BGSU: 4th & 3 at the BGSU 48, Q2 6:30, down 7. Buffalo punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
  3. Week 7 vs MASS: 4th & 14 at the MASS 38, Q4 12:50, tied. Buffalo punted; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (1.9% win chance given up).
  4. Week 6 vs TOL: 4th & 4 at midfield, Q2 8:04, up 6. Buffalo punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.5% win chance given up).
  5. Week 7 vs MASS: 4th & 4 at the MASS 43, Q1 3:05, down 4. Buffalo punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.4% win chance given up).
Play Buffalo’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards