Snap Theory

California

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Tosh Lupoi

118thof 136 FBS teams
70fourth downs graded
30differ from the model
2.49%win chance given up per game
26%go for it
60%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 6 vs VT: 4th & 1 at the VT 47, Q3 10:27, down 4. California punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.8% win chance given up).
  2. Week 6 vs VT: 4th & 4 at the VT 5, Q3 0:28, down 4. California kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (3.7% win chance given up).
  3. Week 4 vs CLEM: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q3 1:48, down 7. California punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.2% win chance given up).
  4. Week 2 vs SYR: 4th & 4 at the SYR 29, Q2 11:16, down 6. California kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.2% win chance given up).
  5. Week 8 vs SMU: 4th & 4 at the SMU 24, Q2 5:12, up 4. California kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.2% win chance given up).
Play California’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards