Snap Theory

Central Michigan

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Matt Drinkall

116thof 136 FBS teams
66fourth downs graded
26differ from the model
2.47%win chance given up per game
35%go for it
73%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 8 vs M-OH: 4th & 4 at the M-OH 5, Q4 4:17, up 3. Central Michigan kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (8.6% win chance given up).
  2. Week 2 vs COLG: 4th & 12 at the COLG 34, Q2 2:51, down 7. Central Michigan punted; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (2.7% win chance given up).
  3. Week 2 vs COLG: 4th & 4 at the COLG 32, Q4 2:41, up 3. Central Michigan punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.4% win chance given up).
  4. Week 8 vs M-OH: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q2 13:43, down 4. Central Michigan punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.3% win chance given up).
  5. Week 7 vs WMU: 4th & 5 at the WMU 29, Q2 1:05, down 14. Central Michigan kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
Play Central Michigan’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards