Snap Theory

Cincinnati

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Scott Satterfield

72ndof 136 FBS teams
54fourth downs graded
20differ from the model
1.60%win chance given up per game
28%go for it
57%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 7 vs WVU: 4th & 3 at their own 33, Q4 2:05, tied. Cincinnati punted; the model’s call was to go for it (5.4% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs TTU: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q1 5:01, tied. Cincinnati punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.0% win chance given up).
  3. Week 9 vs UTAH: 4th & 4 at the UTAH 30, Q1 4:01, down 7. Cincinnati kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.9% win chance given up).
  4. Week 8 vs TTU: 4th & 4 at the TTU 30, Q1 11:22, tied. Cincinnati kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.9% win chance given up).
  5. Week 5 vs ARIZ: 4th & 3 at their own 42, Q1 0:01, down 7. Cincinnati punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.8% win chance given up).
Play Cincinnati’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards