Snap Theory

Colorado State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Jim Mora

20thof 136 FBS teams
58fourth downs graded
24differ from the model
0.96%win chance given up per game
38%go for it
76%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 7 vs TXST: 4th & 1 at their own 33, Q1 11:41, tied. Colorado State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.8% win chance given up).
  2. Week 9 vs USU: 4th & 11 at the USU 38, Q1 8:04, down 7. Colorado State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.8% win chance given up).
  3. Week 5 vs ORST: 4th & 4 at their own 48, Q2 1:52, down 14. Colorado State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.6% win chance given up).
  4. Week 1 vs WYO: 4th & 7 at the WYO 37, Q2 0:33, up 11. Colorado State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.5% win chance given up).
  5. Week 3 vs BYU: 4th & 3 at their own 48, Q1 7:00, down 7. Colorado State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.4% win chance given up).
Play Colorado State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards