Snap Theory

Duke

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Manny Diaz

101stof 136 FBS teams
56fourth downs graded
21differ from the model
2.09%win chance given up per game
27%go for it
45%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 7 vs UNC: 4th & goal at the UNC 4, Q4 8:47, down 7. Duke kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (4.8% win chance given up).
  2. Week 7 vs UNC: 4th & 2 at their own 41, Q3 0:14, down 7. Duke punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.8% win chance given up).
  3. Week 8 vs UVA: 4th & 6 at the UVA 46, Q4 12:08, down 3. Duke punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.5% win chance given up).
  4. Week 7 vs UNC: 4th & goal at the UNC 5, Q3 6:54, down 10. Duke kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
  5. Week 8 vs UVA: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q1 1:21, tied. Duke punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.2% win chance given up).
Play Duke’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards