Snap Theory

East Carolina

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Blake Harrell

80thof 136 FBS teams
76fourth downs graded
27differ from the model
1.71%win chance given up per game
25%go for it
53%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 8 vs MEM: 4th & 4 at the MEM 5, Q1 10:22, tied. East Carolina kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.0% win chance given up).
  2. Week 2 vs APP: 4th & 10 at the APP 20, Q2 1:20, down 10. East Carolina went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (1.9% win chance given up).
  3. Week 2 vs APP: 4th & 5 at the APP 16, Q2 1:21, down 10. East Carolina kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
  4. Week 10 vs USF: 4th & 4 at midfield, Q2 6:44, down 4. East Carolina punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).
  5. Week 10 vs USF: 4th & 3 at midfield, Q3 1:43, up 7. East Carolina punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
Play East Carolina’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards