Snap Theory

Florida State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Rick Stockstill (interim)

89thof 136 FBS teams
57fourth downs graded
13differ from the model
1.83%win chance given up per game
26%go for it
47%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 6 vs LOU: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q3 11:58, down 7. Florida State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.2% win chance given up).
  2. Week 1 vs SMU: 4th & 4 at their own 41, Q4 13:42, tied. Florida State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.1% win chance given up).
  3. Week 10 vs BC: 4th & 4 at the BC 5, Q4 13:22, down 3. Florida State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.1% win chance given up).
  4. Week 6 vs LOU: 4th & 12 at the LOU 42, Q2 0:37, tied. Florida State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.8% win chance given up).
  5. Week 1 vs SMU: 4th & 3 at midfield, Q2 0:31, down 7. Florida State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.5% win chance given up).
Play Florida State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards