Snap Theory

Florida

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Jon Sumrall

23rdof 136 FBS teams
58fourth downs graded
17differ from the model
1.01%win chance given up per game
29%go for it
45%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 5 vs MIZ: 4th & 2 at the MIZ 3, Q1 8:06, tied. Florida kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.6% win chance given up).
  2. Week 6 vs SC: 4th & 3 at the SC 4, Q2 8:50, tied. Florida kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.0% win chance given up).
  3. Week 10 vs OU: 4th & 3 at their own 42, Q3 2:41, down 6. Florida punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.7% win chance given up).
  4. Week 7 vs TEX: 4th & 1 at their own 25, Q1 9:34, down 7. Florida punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.6% win chance given up).
  5. Week 10 vs OU: 4th & 3 at the OU 17, Q3 6:22, down 6. Florida went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (0.5% win chance given up).
Play Florida’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards