Snap Theory

Fresno State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Matt Entz

119thof 136 FBS teams
58fourth downs graded
24differ from the model
2.52%win chance given up per game
12%go for it
52%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 3 vs SJSU: 4th & 1 at their own 44, Q4 3:58, up 6. Fresno State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (4.2% win chance given up).
  2. Week 6 vs BOIS: 4th & 1 at their own 47, Q3 4:02, down 8. Fresno State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.2% win chance given up).
  3. Week 9 vs ORST: 4th & 1 at their own 12, Q1 9:29, tied. Fresno State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.2% win chance given up).
  4. Week 5 vs WSU: 4th & 1 at the WSU 16, Q3 7:13, up 7. Fresno State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.5% win chance given up).
  5. Week 3 vs SJSU: 4th & 5 at the SJSU 45, Q2 7:08, tied. Fresno State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.4% win chance given up).
Play Fresno State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards