Snap Theory

Georgia Southern

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Clay Helton

79thof 136 FBS teams
62fourth downs graded
20differ from the model
1.69%win chance given up per game
19%go for it
45%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 6 vs JMU: 4th & 2 at the JMU 43, Q2 11:23, up 4. Georgia Southern punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.0% win chance given up).
  2. Week 10 vs MRSH: 4th & 1 at their own 33, Q1 0:09, up 7. Georgia Southern punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.0% win chance given up).
  3. Week 5 vs CCU: 4th & 1 at their own 39, Q3 8:47, up 7. Georgia Southern punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.8% win chance given up).
  4. Week 3 vs JXST: 4th & 4 at the JXST 5, Q1 7:08, tied. Georgia Southern kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.5% win chance given up).
  5. Week 5 vs CCU: 4th & 4 at the CCU 45, Q3 11:56, up 7. Georgia Southern punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
Play Georgia Southern’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards