Snap Theory

Houston

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Willie Fritz

13thof 136 FBS teams
40fourth downs graded
8differ from the model
0.77%win chance given up per game
32%go for it
50%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 8 vs UTAH: 4th & 6 at the UTAH 7, Q2 3:44, tied. Houston kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
  2. Week 10 vs CIN: 4th & 3 at the CIN 11, Q3 5:13, up 4. Houston kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.0% win chance given up).
  3. Week 3 vs TTU: 4th & 2 at their own 48, Q1 1:22, up 10. Houston punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.9% win chance given up).
  4. Week 8 vs UTAH: 4th & 2 at their own 32, Q1 9:14, tied. Houston punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.6% win chance given up).
Play Houston’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards