Snap Theory

Illinois

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Bret Bielema

68thof 136 FBS teams
51fourth downs graded
14differ from the model
1.56%win chance given up per game
29%go for it
53%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 10 vs NEB: 4th & 12 at the NEB 32, Q3 10:00, tied. Illinois went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (3.1% win chance given up).
  2. Week 5 vs PUR: 4th & 8 at the PUR 37, Q4 8:15, down 9. Illinois kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (3.0% win chance given up).
  3. Week 5 vs PUR: 4th & 8 at the PUR 42, Q3 12:12, down 6. Illinois punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.3% win chance given up).
  4. Week 9 vs MD: 4th & 3 at their own 32, Q4 8:42, tied. Illinois punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.4% win chance given up).
  5. Week 2 vs DUKE: 4th & 5 at the DUKE 30, Q3 5:08, down 4. Illinois kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.4% win chance given up).
Play Illinois’ calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards