Snap Theory

Indiana

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Curt Cignetti

128thof 136 FBS teams
56fourth downs graded
17differ from the model
2.92%win chance given up per game
21%go for it
45%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 9 vs MINN: 4th & 1 at the MINN 17, Q4 3:05, down 3. Indiana kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (5.0% win chance given up).
  2. Week 9 vs MINN: 4th & 7 at the MINN 9, Q4 9:11, down 3. Indiana went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (4.4% win chance given up).
  3. Week 7 vs OSU: 4th & 10 at their own 16, Q4 4:21, down 4. Indiana punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.6% win chance given up).
  4. Week 8 vs MICH: 4th & 1 at their own 45, Q4 10:52, up 3. Indiana punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.3% win chance given up).
  5. Week 6 vs NEB: 4th & 1 at their own 35, Q2 6:56, down 7. Indiana punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.8% win chance given up).
Play Indiana’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards