Snap Theory

Iowa State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Jimmy Rogers

107thof 136 FBS teams
65fourth downs graded
26differ from the model
2.24%win chance given up per game
18%go for it
49%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 9 vs OKST: 4th & 9 at the OKST 12, Q4 2:56, up 3. Iowa State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (6.9% win chance given up).
  2. Week 10 vs BAY: 4th & 2 at their own 29, Q2 2:45, up 3. Iowa State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.1% win chance given up).
  3. Week 2 vs IOWA: 4th & 1 at their own 18, Q1 9:01, tied. Iowa State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.8% win chance given up).
  4. Week 2 vs IOWA: 4th & 2 at their own 48, Q1 5:17, tied. Iowa State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.8% win chance given up).
  5. Week 5 vs WVU: 4th & 4 at midfield, Q3 2:13, up 7. Iowa State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.6% win chance given up).
Play Iowa State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards