Snap Theory

Iowa

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Kirk Ferentz

134thof 136 FBS teams
55fourth downs graded
20differ from the model
3.62%win chance given up per game
7%go for it
35%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 4 vs MICH: 4th & 6 at the MICH 34, Q4 2:33, down 5. Iowa kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (9.1% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs MINN: 4th & 2 at midfield, Q4 14:15, down 7. Iowa punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.2% win chance given up).
  3. Week 4 vs MICH: 4th & 1 at the MICH 45, Q1 11:10, tied. Iowa punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.0% win chance given up).
  4. Week 2 vs ISU: 4th & 1 at the ISU 15, Q4 6:22, down 3. Iowa kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.9% win chance given up).
  5. Week 4 vs MICH: 4th & 8 at the MICH 44, Q4 8:02, down 5. Iowa punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.5% win chance given up).
Play Iowa’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards