Snap Theory

Kansas State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Collin Klein

114thof 136 FBS teams
54fourth downs graded
24differ from the model
2.44%win chance given up per game
20%go for it
54%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 8 vs ASU: 4th & 1 at their own 10, Q1 2:26, tied. Kansas State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.8% win chance given up).
  2. Week 7 vs KU: 4th & 3 at the KU 40, Q2 2:17, down 4. Kansas State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.6% win chance given up).
  3. Week 7 vs KU: 4th & 4 at the KU 5, Q2 11:50, down 10. Kansas State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.4% win chance given up).
  4. Week 9 vs COLO: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q1 13:08, tied. Kansas State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.3% win chance given up).
  5. Week 8 vs ASU: 4th & 3 at the ASU 5, Q2 5:47, down 7. Kansas State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
Play Kansas State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards