Snap Theory

Kentucky

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Will Stein

135thof 136 FBS teams
60fourth downs graded
17differ from the model
3.87%win chance given up per game
28%go for it
52%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 6 vs LSU: 4th & 1 at the LSU 16, Q4 0:12, down 3. Kentucky kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (9.4% win chance given up).
  2. Week 5 vs SC: 4th & 1 at the SC 12, Q4 4:13, down 3. Kentucky kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (9.3% win chance given up).
  3. Week 5 vs SC: 4th & 9 at the SC 39, Q3 6:45, down 3. Kentucky punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.8% win chance given up).
  4. Week 6 vs LSU: 4th & 3 at the LSU 11, Q4 11:54, up 1. Kentucky kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.8% win chance given up).
  5. Week 5 vs SC: 4th & 3 at the SC 25, Q2 0:59, down 10. Kentucky kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.5% win chance given up).
Play Kentucky’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards