Snap Theory

Liberty

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Jamey Chadwell

22ndof 136 FBS teams
49fourth downs graded
7differ from the model
1.00%win chance given up per game
16%go for it
22%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 4 vs CCU: 4th & 26 at the CCU 34, Q2 1:32, tied. Liberty punted; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (3.0% win chance given up).
  2. Week 4 vs CCU: 4th & 2 at the CCU 7, Q3 4:52, tied. Liberty kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
  3. Week 1 vs JMU: 4th & 8 at the JMU 41, Q1 8:39, tied. Liberty punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.9% win chance given up).
  4. Week 3 vs BALL: 4th & 3 at the BALL 29, Q2 8:48, up 6. Liberty kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.2% win chance given up).
Play Liberty’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards