Snap Theory

Louisville

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Jeff Brohm

48thof 136 FBS teams
46fourth downs graded
9differ from the model
1.21%win chance given up per game
13%go for it
33%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 1 vs MISS: 4th & 3 at the MISS 28, Q3 2:22, down 1. Louisville kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.9% win chance given up).
  2. Week 6 vs FSU: 4th & 4 at the FSU 37, Q2 14:50, down 14. Louisville kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
  3. Week 1 vs MISS: 4th & 5 at the MISS 40, Q1 3:25, up 3. Louisville punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.7% win chance given up).
  4. Week 9 vs STAN: 4th & 1 at the STAN 18, Q2 1:46, down 3. Louisville kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
  5. Week 10 vs GT: 4th & 2 at the GT 25, Q1 11:06, tied. Louisville kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.4% win chance given up).
Play Louisville’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards