Snap Theory

LSU

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Lane Kiffin

96thof 136 FBS teams
54fourth downs graded
12differ from the model
1.98%win chance given up per game
28%go for it
46%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 3 vs MISS: 4th & 4 at the MISS 6, Q4 11:21, down 3. LSU kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (4.9% win chance given up).
  2. Week 6 vs UK: 4th & 1 at their own 43, Q4 1:37, up 3. LSU punted; the model’s call was to go for it (4.1% win chance given up).
  3. Week 10 vs ALA: 4th & 4 at the ALA 24, Q3 11:43, down 7. LSU kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.3% win chance given up).
  4. Week 3 vs MISS: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q1 4:55, down 3. LSU punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.2% win chance given up).
  5. Week 10 vs ALA: 4th & 9 at the ALA 39, Q2 14:55, tied. LSU kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.0% win chance given up).
Play LSU’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards