Snap Theory

Memphis

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Charles Huff

111thof 136 FBS teams
52fourth downs graded
17differ from the model
2.40%win chance given up per game
17%go for it
42%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 1 vs UNLV: 4th & 1 at their own 27, Q3 4:40, tied. Memphis punted; the model’s call was to go for it (4.1% win chance given up).
  2. Week 1 vs UNLV: 4th & 1 at their own 37, Q2 12:44, tied. Memphis punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.9% win chance given up).
  3. Week 7 vs TULN: 4th & 1 at their own 15, Q2 9:11, up 7. Memphis punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.4% win chance given up).
  4. Week 8 vs ECU: 4th & 3 at the ECU 17, Q3 1:28, down 7. Memphis kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.1% win chance given up).
  5. Week 2 vs BOIS: 4th & 5 at the BOIS 44, Q3 4:00, down 11. Memphis punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.8% win chance given up).
Play Memphis’ calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards