Snap Theory

Miami (OH)

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Chuck Martin

105thof 136 FBS teams
63fourth downs graded
17differ from the model
2.20%win chance given up per game
16%go for it
38%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 4 vs CONN: 4th & 2 at the CONN 44, Q4 11:19, tied. Miami (OH) punted; the model’s call was to go for it (6.0% win chance given up).
  2. Week 3 vs CIN: 4th & 1 at the CIN 2, Q4 13:51, up 7. Miami (OH) kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (5.5% win chance given up).
  3. Week 6 vs MASS: 4th & 3 at the MASS 41, Q3 8:50, up 4. Miami (OH) punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.5% win chance given up).
  4. Week 5 vs BGSU: 4th & 2 at their own 45, Q2 3:52, down 4. Miami (OH) punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.4% win chance given up).
  5. Week 1 vs PITT: 4th & 4 at the PITT 39, Q1 14:06, tied. Miami (OH) punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.2% win chance given up).
Play Miami (OH)’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards