Snap Theory

Miami

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Mario Cristobal

14thof 136 FBS teams
36fourth downs graded
6differ from the model
0.82%win chance given up per game
28%go for it
44%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 10 vs ND: 4th & 1 at the ND 2, Q2 6:25, down 10. Miami kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (4.7% win chance given up).
  2. Week 10 vs ND: 4th & 3 at their own 45, Q2 2:08, down 7. Miami punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.2% win chance given up).
  3. Week 5 vs CLEM: 4th & 1 at their own 25, Q2 9:33, up 14. Miami punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.4% win chance given up).
Play Miami’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards