Snap Theory

Michigan State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Pat Fitzgerald

34thof 136 FBS teams
62fourth downs graded
16differ from the model
1.09%win chance given up per game
34%go for it
55%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 7 vs NU: 4th & 4 at the NU 46, Q3 1:21, up 1. Michigan State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.1% win chance given up).
  2. Week 7 vs NU: 4th & 2 at their own 44, Q3 11:56, up 4. Michigan State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
  3. Week 7 vs NU: 4th & 3 at their own 31, Q4 5:54, tied. Michigan State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
  4. Week 8 vs UCLA: 4th & 2 at their own 32, Q1 1:45, up 7. Michigan State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.8% win chance given up).
  5. Week 8 vs UCLA: 4th & 8 at the UCLA 38, Q1 8:48, tied. Michigan State punted; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (0.8% win chance given up).
Play Michigan State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards