Snap Theory

Michigan

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Kyle Whittingham

85thof 136 FBS teams
55fourth downs graded
18differ from the model
1.77%win chance given up per game
13%go for it
40%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 2 vs OU: 4th & 2 at their own 9, Q4 3:05, up 7. Michigan punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.0% win chance given up).
  2. Week 7 vs PSU: 4th & 1 at their own 35, Q2 11:10, down 3. Michigan punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.5% win chance given up).
  3. Week 10 vs MSU: 4th & 2 at their own 47, Q3 12:53, down 6. Michigan punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.5% win chance given up).
  4. Week 7 vs PSU: 4th & 2 at their own 44, Q3 12:18, down 3. Michigan punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
  5. Week 2 vs OU: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q3 13:31, up 10. Michigan punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.8% win chance given up).
Play Michigan’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards