Middle Tennessee

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Derek Mason

The costliest close calls

1. Week 4 vs JXST: 4th & 1 at their own 33, Q1 11:13, tied. Middle Tennessee punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.3% win chance given up).
2. Week 8 vs FIU: 4th & 2 at midfield, Q2 5:02, up 2. Middle Tennessee punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.3% win chance given up).
3. Week 10 vs WKU: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q4 3:15, up 7. Middle Tennessee punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.2% win chance given up).
4. Week 3 vs NEV: 4th & 5 at the NEV 6, Q4 9:51, down 3. Middle Tennessee kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
5. Week 2 vs MRSH: 4th & 2 at the MRSH 18, Q2 3:50, down 4. Middle Tennessee kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.8% win chance given up).

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards