Snap Theory

Minnesota

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: P. J. Fleck

41stof 136 FBS teams
70fourth downs graded
18differ from the model
1.16%win chance given up per game
13%go for it
37%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 6 vs PUR: 4th & 4 at the PUR 37, Q1 10:21, down 3. Minnesota punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.1% win chance given up).
  2. Week 4 vs WASH: 4th & 2 at the WASH 42, Q1 6:52, tied. Minnesota punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
  3. Week 2 vs MSST: 4th & 3 at the MSST 27, Q1 2:58, down 7. Minnesota kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).
  4. Week 4 vs WASH: 4th & 1 at the WASH 14, Q3 0:54, up 11. Minnesota kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).
  5. Week 6 vs PUR: 4th & 2 at the PUR 32, Q2 10:48, down 7. Minnesota kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
Play Minnesota’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards