Snap Theory

Mississippi State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Jeff Lebby

104thof 136 FBS teams
61fourth downs graded
19differ from the model
2.17%win chance given up per game
26%go for it
51%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 8 vs OU: 4th & 1 at midfield, Q2 12:05, down 3. Mississippi State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.2% win chance given up).
  2. Week 10 vs VAN: 4th & 8 at the VAN 9, Q4 4:56, down 8. Mississippi State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (3.0% win chance given up).
  3. Week 4 vs MIZ: 4th & 4 at their own 41, Q3 0:27, down 7. Mississippi State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.4% win chance given up).
  4. Week 3 vs SC: 4th & 3 at the SC 19, Q3 4:40, up 5. Mississippi State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
  5. Week 4 vs MIZ: 4th & goal at the MIZ 9, Q2 0:07, up 4. Mississippi State went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (1.5% win chance given up).
Play Mississippi State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards