Snap Theory

Missouri State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Casey Woods

71stof 136 FBS teams
58fourth downs graded
22differ from the model
1.58%win chance given up per game
26%go for it
60%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 10 vs FIU: 4th & goal at the FIU 5, Q4 9:08, down 11. Missouri State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.8% win chance given up).
  2. Week 10 vs FIU: 4th & 4 at the FIU 25, Q3 12:00, tied. Missouri State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.8% win chance given up).
  3. Week 3 vs MRSH: 4th & goal at the MRSH 5, Q2 1:00, down 7. Missouri State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
  4. Week 3 vs MRSH: 4th & 3 at the MRSH 47, Q1 12:41, tied. Missouri State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.5% win chance given up).
  5. Week 6 vs WKU: 4th & 7 at the WKU 8, Q1 2:16, down 7. Missouri State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).
Play Missouri State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards