Snap Theory

Navy

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Brian Newberry

50thof 136 FBS teams
56fourth downs graded
17differ from the model
1.24%win chance given up per game
39%go for it
59%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 5 vs AFA: 4th & 7 at the AFA 46, Q4 13:09, down 5. Navy punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.6% win chance given up).
  2. Week 10 vs TEM: 4th & 7 at their own 29, Q4 6:18, up 7. Navy went for it; the model’s call was to punt (1.7% win chance given up).
  3. Week 7 vs UTSA: 4th & 4 at the UTSA 32, Q1 6:35, up 7. Navy kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.2% win chance given up).
Play Navy’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards