Snap Theory

NC State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Todd Goebbel (interim)

60thof 136 FBS teams
55fourth downs graded
16differ from the model
1.48%win chance given up per game
20%go for it
45%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 5 vs LOU: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q4 11:23, tied. NC State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (4.1% win chance given up).
  2. Week 9 vs CAL: 4th & 1 at their own 31, Q2 1:41, up 3. NC State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.4% win chance given up).
  3. Week 10 vs DUKE: 4th & 1 at their own 15, Q1 2:40, down 4. NC State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.4% win chance given up).
  4. Week 6 vs WAKE: 4th & 6 at the WAKE 43, Q2 4:37, up 7. NC State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.2% win chance given up).
  5. Week 5 vs LOU: 4th & 4 at the LOU 11, Q4 5:30, tied. NC State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.0% win chance given up).
Play NC State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards