Snap Theory

Nebraska

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Matt Rhule

44thof 136 FBS teams
57fourth downs graded
16differ from the model
1.17%win chance given up per game
25%go for it
40%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 7 vs ORE: 4th & 1 at their own 24, Q3 5:33, up 1. Nebraska punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.7% win chance given up).
  2. Week 6 vs IU: 4th & 9 at the IU 40, Q3 1:51, up 4. Nebraska punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.8% win chance given up).
  3. Week 10 vs ILL: 4th & 3 at the ILL 34, Q4 2:17, down 11. Nebraska went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (1.2% win chance given up).
  4. Week 9 vs WASH: 4th & 2 at their own 45, Q3 7:11, up 4. Nebraska punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.0% win chance given up).
  5. Week 7 vs ORE: 4th & 4 at the ORE 47, Q1 3:42, tied. Nebraska punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.9% win chance given up).
Play Nebraska’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards