Snap Theory

Nevada

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Jeff Choate

46thof 136 FBS teams
62fourth downs graded
21differ from the model
1.18%win chance given up per game
21%go for it
50%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 3 vs MTSU: 4th & goal at the MTSU 3, Q4 14:10, tied. Nevada kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.8% win chance given up).
  2. Week 7 vs NDSU: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q2 4:28, up 5. Nevada punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.7% win chance given up).
  3. Week 7 vs NDSU: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q1 13:37, tied. Nevada punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).
  4. Week 3 vs MTSU: 4th & 8 at the MTSU 41, Q1 1:34, tied. Nevada punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
  5. Week 10 vs UNM: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q1 9:36, down 7. Nevada punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.8% win chance given up).
Play Nevada’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards