Snap Theory

New Mexico

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Jason Eck

2ndof 136 FBS teams
57fourth downs graded
11differ from the model
0.30%win chance given up per game
26%go for it
39%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 10 vs NEV: 4th & 1 at their own 37, Q1 8:13, up 7. New Mexico punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.8% win chance given up).
  2. Week 3 vs OU: 4th & 6 at the OU 45, Q2 9:44, down 7. New Mexico punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.6% win chance given up).
  3. Week 9 vs SJSU: 4th & 6 at the SJSU 34, Q4 4:53, up 5. New Mexico kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.3% win chance given up).
  4. Week 3 vs OU: 4th & 5 at the OU 7, Q2 4:00, down 7. New Mexico kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.1% win chance given up).
Play New Mexico’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards