Snap Theory

North Carolina

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Bill Belichick

102ndof 136 FBS teams
54fourth downs graded
14differ from the model
2.14%win chance given up per game
24%go for it
39%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 6 vs PITT: 4th & 1 at their own 39, Q4 1:36, up 4. North Carolina punted; the model’s call was to go for it (8.6% win chance given up).
  2. Week 10 vs CONN: 4th & 1 at their own 36, Q1 7:14, tied. North Carolina punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.6% win chance given up).
  3. Week 1 vs TCU: 4th & 2 at the TCU 3, Q1 10:07, tied. North Carolina kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.1% win chance given up).
  4. Week 6 vs PITT: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q3 9:41, down 3. North Carolina punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.4% win chance given up).
  5. Week 3 vs CLEM: 4th & 4 at the CLEM 40, Q2 5:02, up 14. North Carolina punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.0% win chance given up).
Play North Carolina’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards