Snap Theory

North Dakota State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Tim Polasek

4thof 136 FBS teams
61fourth downs graded
13differ from the model
0.45%win chance given up per game
30%go for it
39%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 6 vs UNLV: 4th & 6 at the UNLV 49, Q3 6:48, down 3. North Dakota State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.0% win chance given up).
  2. Week 1 vs JVST: 4th & 12 at the JVST 36, Q2 14:05, tied. North Dakota State went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (0.8% win chance given up).
  3. Week 7 vs NEV: 4th & 2 at their own 44, Q1 10:47, tied. North Dakota State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.3% win chance given up).
Play North Dakota State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards