Snap Theory

North Texas

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Neal Brown

5thof 136 FBS teams
47fourth downs graded
13differ from the model
0.51%win chance given up per game
30%go for it
51%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 9 vs FAU: 4th & 6 at the FAU 7, Q1 9:39, tied. North Texas kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).
  2. Week 9 vs FAU: 4th & 8 at the FAU 31, Q3 11:39, tied. North Texas kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.9% win chance given up).
  3. Week 3 vs TXST: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q1 9:19, down 7. North Texas punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.7% win chance given up).
  4. Week 10 vs RICE: 4th & 4 at the RICE 20, Q1 6:03, tied. North Texas kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.7% win chance given up).
  5. Week 9 vs FAU: 4th & 4 at the FAU 49, Q1 4:37, down 4. North Texas punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.6% win chance given up).
Play North Texas’ calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards